"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." George Bernard Shaw

Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts

November 29, 2010

CLOSER LOOK AT THE MISSILE SHIELD

2010

During his way to the Lisbon, where the NATO summit was going to take place, Turkish President Abdullah Gül shared his opinion with the reporters: “Outcomes of the Lisbon (summit) will determine the 10-15 years of NATO agenda.” During the meeting on 19th and 20th November, the most important decision, along with the efforts of expanding NATO-EU security collaboration in the sense of involving non-EU European countries, was the plantation of a missile shield in Europe and radar probably in Turkish territory. After this historic decision, there are now some questions on the table: Who is this shield for? Who will control it? Will it protect enough in exchange for that much investment? What are the benefits for Turkey?

Obviously, preventing Iran’s possible aggressive behaviors in the region is the primary aim to build the shield. Russia is another country that has the missile technology but as she is declared a companion of NATO, nobody puts her name next to Iran. Before and during the summit, due to her zero problem policy with neighbours, Turkey underlined the sensitivity of not to speak out any name of any country that can be the objective for the shield. Except an individual effort by the French president Sarkozy, every member country shared Turkey’s perception and as a result Turkey escaped a possible outpost role in the favor of US against Iran or Russia.

After the end of the Cold War, it was a popular thought that NATO was over as it had lost its objective following the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, it maintained its existence, this time against new threats like terrorist organizations, cyber attacks and aggressive states. The theories that NATO is an organization that executes the interests of US still have an heavy impact on the public opinion and this situation makes people wonder if the shield technology in Turkish territory would be controlled by US officials. According to the decisions taken in the summit, the responsibility will be shared by the NATO members equally.

In May 2010, two important physicians from MIT claimed that missile shield is a military myth as it cannot catch a nuclear missile with high success rate. They supported their arguments with the official reports published by the Pentagon which were about testing the related shield. During the tests, only 1 or 2 out of 10 missiles were hit by the shield and there had never been a real nuclear missile used in these practices. On the contrary, it is obvious that expectancy for the shield to be fully successful will be high since there will a large sum of money to be invested in the project. According to the plans, each NATO member, including the post-economic crisis states of EU, is going to give 200 million dollars each for the next ten years. However, there are rumours that the price will be higher, given that a similar US project cost for 45 billion dollars.

Everything about the missile shield issue resulted fine for Turkish officials’ side during the summit. Firstly, Turkey’s sensitivity about not to mention Iran as the shield’s objective was shared by all the members. Also, the change of missile shield coverage from East Europe to Turkey and whole Europe was a lucky and maybe a deserved move due to her positive foreign policy steps during the last couple of years. Furthermore, since there was a preparation of a Turkish missile shield for the upcoming years, the NATO project can be a chance to reduce the costs of this national one. Finally, possessing a shield project, although under the common control of members, would be a prestigious role for Turkey if correctly exercised.

To sum up, it is obvious that the decision to plant a missile shield in Europe is a chance for NATO to regenerate its influence following end of the Cold War. Although there are question marks against its high costs and ability to hit the target, still it is an important effort to form a security area over Turkey and European region. Additionally, the summit can be written as a success for Turkey as they persuaded all the members about the sensitivity not to mention Iran as an objective for the shield and they gained a chance to achieve an influential role due to their active involvement in the process.

October 27, 2010

LESS THAN A WIN-WIN IN AKKUYU

2010

Turkey’s foreign affair officials certainly have an agenda of short and long term plans. For now the foremost countries to be in concern and correlation are most probably United States, Iraq and Israel. Then comes European Union countries and Iran but certainly Russia is not among those first five. However, things may change in the future when the Russia-owned nuclear reactor in Turkey becomes real.

It was published in the Turkish Official Journal on 6th of October 2010 that Turkish and Russian officials sealed the deal for a nuclear reactor to be constructed in Akkuyu/Turkey by a joint stock of Russian companies that are to be agreed on in the near future. It is known that nuclear energy comes with its advantages and disadvantages but the details of the agreement bring more things to be concerned about.

According to the agreement, the Russian corporation is going to finish building the reactor and start the commercial activities in 10 years. What is catchy here is that Russians will hold all the rights and commercial shares of the reactor as long as it stands. It is reported that Russians are planning to sell the 49% of the shares to anyone interested but not one bit more. Also Turkey committed itself to purchase some large part of the electricity made by the Russian reactor for 15 years. According to the Union of Turkish Electrical Engineers, the construction of the reactor will not cost as cheap as it is predicted. Besides it will be more expensive to purchase electricity in a package for 15 years alongside its possible dependency effect.

Obviously nuclear power comes with a need of technical know-how and Turkey doesn’t have that. This inability would cost one way or another and Turkish officials chose a way in which Russia will play a major part. Although possessing a nuclear reactor is a nearly “must” for the regional power candidates in Middle East, it may be less than a win-win situation for Turkey. Before the commercial-related articles and their numerical details in the agreement, one can think the possibility of Turkey’s increasing dependency on Russia which also provides most of the natural gas need of Turkey. It is quite satirical when one can see that nuclear power is a way for its owners to be less dependent on other energy providers.

It is interesting that Russia also have plans to build a nuclear reactor in Venezuela which seems very similar to the Turkish plan. This may bring us to the point that Russians may not be planning only commercial activity with the nuclear know-how they own. When we think of the geopolitical standings of Turkey and Venezuela, it would be naïve to see the ongoing process only in commercial framework. As a result, it can be concluded that it may be prestigious and intimidating for Turkey in the future to have a nuclear reactor in their own land for the existing regional power conflict and but it is a more “win” in the Russian side if that is a win-win situation.
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