WHAT TO EXPECT FROM TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY IN 2011

2011

Although there is an optimistic way of thinking on the behalf of Turkey’s foreign policy steps due to its growing influence in her Eastern borders or Obama administration’s efforts for restoring trust through phone calls, nobody can assure that 2011 will be an easy and comfortable year for Turkish state officials. The reason Turkey is emerging as a significant regional player is not that simply she is between West and East but her significant economic and diplomatic influence especially in the Middle East. It seems that 2011 will bring many topics in Turkish foreign policy agenda such as stability of Iraqi government, Israeli tension, Iranian nuclear proliferation, Armenia relations and European Union membership.

Since Ahmet Davutoglu came into power as the Minister of Foreign Affairs in 2009, Turkey adopted a “zero problem” strategy with its neighbors. This proactive change is a step forward for Turkey to a more influential attitude in the region but the economic advancements and relations with Middle East members tell us that zero problem policy is a product of economic motivations. Nevertheless, the search for a more stable and peaceful environment in her East would mean a lot for Turkey in 2011 especially in reestablishment in Iraq. Compared to European investors, Turkish companies seem more comfortable in doing business in risky atmosphere of Iraq. The continuity of the newly formed Iraqi government will be a key issue for advancements of Turkish industry in the post-war region and the Turkish government will be having an important role for developing relations with her Iraqi colleagues in 2011.

Tension with Israel seem not to be decreasing as Turkey’s demands for an apology and compensation for “Mavi Marmara” deaths will probably not be answered by the Israeli government. Although the history and context of Turkey-Israel relations is big enough not to be replaced easily, Turkish Prime Minister’s aggressive statements to Israel make him a popular figure in the Middle East countries and this motivation seems enough to stand firm in the confrontation. In addition, Iran’s nuclear proliferation is another sensitive issue for Turkey to act wisely as a nuclear-muscled Iran is a sure threat to Turkey more than to US or Europe. At the end of January, Turkey will host a United Nations Security Council meeting that is about sanctions on Iran and despite the fact that Turkey will not a have a word in the meetings, still it will be a good event to further the bilateral and multilateral relations about the issue.

Efforts to normalize relations with Armenia is another topic in the agenda which will help the region stabilize especially for energy transportation. Protocols and agreements in 2009 was a good step for both countries as it was a good way to silence the Armenian lobbies across the ocean. Still, Turkey insists for a resolution of disputes between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to further the negotiations. The solution in this issue is important due to the fact that Azerbaijan is a significant neighbor for Turkey as she is an energy partner supported with ties of kinship. Besides, Armenia relations have a sensitive reflection in EU membership as Armenia is included in European Neighborhood policy. Furthermore the weakening relations of Turkey and EU which leads many people think that Turkey is shifting to the East. The fact is, Croatia, that is started membership negotiations with Turkey in 2005, is planning to successfully close all the chapters of negotiations in the first part of 2011. On the contrary, Turkey only managed to close one of the chapters and this insufficiency may lead Turkey to form her policy accordingly and maybe permanently in 2011.

I intentionally did not mention the role of United States above since the long-lasting relationship between US and Turkey seems to continue necessarily due to Turkey’s position to support policies of US in the region. The year 2011 have enough reasons for Turkish Foreign Policy not to decrease the tempo of 2010. The influential and proactive role that Turkey adopted will bring a need for stability and peace not just outside but also inside the boundaries and it is for certain that the increasing number of issues and problems that are mentioned above can have either a restraining or propelling role in Turkish Foreign Policy in 2011.

ACTING ACCORDINGLY AND THROUGH IMPROVISATION

2010

In the spring of 2010, Ibrahim Tatlises, a famous Turkish singer and showman, signed an agreement of a construction project in Erbil, Iraq. Tatlises will be investing in this project with a share of 50% and 70.000 houses will be built at the end of it. Tatlises is not only a singer in his hometown but also a businessman with his investments in sectors like food, clothing and broadcasting. But that’s not the case. The case is not the investment of a Turkish singer in Iraq. This micro example is only a shiny part of the increasing Turkish investment in Iraq and mostly in Kurdish Regional Government in Northern Iraq.

According to the regional administration in Northern Iraq, 730 out of 1,217 foreign companies in Iraq (mostly in Arbil, Sulaymaniyah and Duhok) are Turkish investments. A large portion of these companies are from construction and trade sectors which briefly signals the needs of the post-war Iraqi society. Also the trade numbers show the importance of Turkish goods in the region. There is a 6 billion dollars of trade between two countries and 5,2 billion of it is Turkey’s exports which are generally textile and ready-wear goods.

It is obvious that both these countries make profits from this cooperation. Turkey is now the most important importer for Iraq with a rate of 25% and this cooperation helps Turkey to continue its ongoing positive domestic economic atmosphere. On the other hand, Iraq severely needs huge and various investments due to its devastated post-war conditions and Turkey is one of the biggest contributors. Moreover, this transaction also helps Iraq build a more stable state. Turkey has a policy of “zero problem with neighbors” and Turkish state officials are very keen to give hand to Iraqi people for a stable, reliable and peaceful environment in their South Eastern region. But the most crucial point here is that Turkey is becoming a prominent actor in the Middle East region as a result of this cooperation.

According to the theories, after the withdrawal of US troops through the end of the 2011 there will be a power gap in Iraq. Shias, Sunnis and Kurds are the most influential groups in the country. After the withdrawal, Shias might be looking for support from Iran and Sunnis from the Arab world. It seems that Turkey is the most suitable candidate for the “brother” role for Kurds and the ongoing economic cooperation is also a way for building an increasing level of understanding for further cooperation between these two neighbors. Turkish state officials shows their good intentions by opening up new consulships in Iraq and this means another step for the development of good relations between the two sides.

The Turkish Businessman’s Association (TBA) seems to be sharing and maintaining this ambition. In April 2010, the members of the association met with Mesud Barzani, the president of the Kurdish Regional Government. After the meeting, Umit Boyner, president of TBA, pointed out the importance of the relationship between the two countries: “Legal and political environment along with the investment conditions of the region are noteworthy for us. The integrity of this country is precious to Turkey." It seems that all the actors in the stage are performing their actings according to the script and good news is that they also know how to improvise. Even a Turkish singer knows where to invest and this means more than it seems for the future actings in the region.