"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." George Bernard Shaw

November 19, 2010

REALITIES BEYOND OPTIMISM

2010

On 9th of November 2010, The European Commission published the progress report of Turkey and it seems that despite the optimistic atmosphere that is created by Turkey’s Chief Negotiator Egemen Bagis afterwards the publish, Turkey still needs a lot of time and effort to be accepted by European Union as a full member. Although nobody can ignore the fair progress that was succeeded by Turkish officials in certain areas (which is also underlined in the progress report of 2010), the two certain issues are on the table to be resolved: Full implantation of the Customs Union obligations with the EU and the progress towards the normalization of relations with Cyprus.

The first statement after the publish of progress report came from the Chief Negotiator Egemen Bagis: “This progress report is far more better than the one in 2009 which was the most positive report until that time. Now we can get the smell of EU membership.” It is pretty normal to hear such a statement from Egemen Bagis who is a dynamic and optimistic negotiator. But what needs to be done is to carefully examine the picture taken by the European Commission on behalf of the further progress that should be realized by Turkey. Yet, the tricky part is when you attempt to write down the pros and cons highlighted in the 2010 report, you see that, in nearly all lines, there has been a progress which is not sufficient enough.

According to the report, the political criteria is being sufficiently fulfilled by Turkey; thanks to the progress in public administration alongside with judiciary and fundamental rights with the approval of constitutional amendments in a referendum in 12th of September. Still, more efforts are needed on areas such as freedom of media and minority rights (fail of democratic opening for Kurdish people are emphasized). Moreover, in the economical aspects, growing market economy is praised in the report in spite of the continuing unemployment problem and external imbalances. Also the report shows that some laws and regulations that are to be aligned with EU’s are accomplished such as the State Aid Law which is a step towards the negotiations in the area of competition. Nevertheless, several number of developments are required in areas such as fisheries, social policies, justice and home affairs.

Beyond all these pros, cons and statements of “almost successful but not sufficient”, two crucial issues still stand in front of the EU membership of Turkey: First is the need for fully implementing the Customs Union obligations which in brief a large number of obstacles to be removed affecting EU products that are in free circulation. Second is the relations with Cyprus which in brief enabling direct transport links and allowing the free movement of goods with the island. Furthermore, the normalization of relations with Cyprus is vital as, in practical sense, the EU membership of Cyprus enables it to possibly object to the membership of Turkey.

Eventually, it should be remembered that only 13 of possible 33 acquis chapters of negotiations are opened and only one of them is closed. Nobody expects from Turkey to close all the chapters in the blink of an eye but if somebody is to get a smell of hope, he should be close to the table. No offense to the optimistic stance of Egemen Bagis but Commissioner Füle’s statements are also important as the demanding side is Turkey in this game: “Despite the progress in 2009, we are concerned that Turkey’s accession process is losing its momentum. The key to changing this is primarily with Turkey, which is expected to fully implement its current contractual relations with the EU –Customs Union- before it can gear up to full membership of the Union.”

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