"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." George Bernard Shaw

November 29, 2010

CLOSER LOOK AT THE MISSILE SHIELD

2010

During his way to the Lisbon, where the NATO summit was going to take place, Turkish President Abdullah Gül shared his opinion with the reporters: “Outcomes of the Lisbon (summit) will determine the 10-15 years of NATO agenda.” During the meeting on 19th and 20th November, the most important decision, along with the efforts of expanding NATO-EU security collaboration in the sense of involving non-EU European countries, was the plantation of a missile shield in Europe and radar probably in Turkish territory. After this historic decision, there are now some questions on the table: Who is this shield for? Who will control it? Will it protect enough in exchange for that much investment? What are the benefits for Turkey?

Obviously, preventing Iran’s possible aggressive behaviors in the region is the primary aim to build the shield. Russia is another country that has the missile technology but as she is declared a companion of NATO, nobody puts her name next to Iran. Before and during the summit, due to her zero problem policy with neighbours, Turkey underlined the sensitivity of not to speak out any name of any country that can be the objective for the shield. Except an individual effort by the French president Sarkozy, every member country shared Turkey’s perception and as a result Turkey escaped a possible outpost role in the favor of US against Iran or Russia.

After the end of the Cold War, it was a popular thought that NATO was over as it had lost its objective following the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, it maintained its existence, this time against new threats like terrorist organizations, cyber attacks and aggressive states. The theories that NATO is an organization that executes the interests of US still have an heavy impact on the public opinion and this situation makes people wonder if the shield technology in Turkish territory would be controlled by US officials. According to the decisions taken in the summit, the responsibility will be shared by the NATO members equally.

In May 2010, two important physicians from MIT claimed that missile shield is a military myth as it cannot catch a nuclear missile with high success rate. They supported their arguments with the official reports published by the Pentagon which were about testing the related shield. During the tests, only 1 or 2 out of 10 missiles were hit by the shield and there had never been a real nuclear missile used in these practices. On the contrary, it is obvious that expectancy for the shield to be fully successful will be high since there will a large sum of money to be invested in the project. According to the plans, each NATO member, including the post-economic crisis states of EU, is going to give 200 million dollars each for the next ten years. However, there are rumours that the price will be higher, given that a similar US project cost for 45 billion dollars.

Everything about the missile shield issue resulted fine for Turkish officials’ side during the summit. Firstly, Turkey’s sensitivity about not to mention Iran as the shield’s objective was shared by all the members. Also, the change of missile shield coverage from East Europe to Turkey and whole Europe was a lucky and maybe a deserved move due to her positive foreign policy steps during the last couple of years. Furthermore, since there was a preparation of a Turkish missile shield for the upcoming years, the NATO project can be a chance to reduce the costs of this national one. Finally, possessing a shield project, although under the common control of members, would be a prestigious role for Turkey if correctly exercised.

To sum up, it is obvious that the decision to plant a missile shield in Europe is a chance for NATO to regenerate its influence following end of the Cold War. Although there are question marks against its high costs and ability to hit the target, still it is an important effort to form a security area over Turkey and European region. Additionally, the summit can be written as a success for Turkey as they persuaded all the members about the sensitivity not to mention Iran as an objective for the shield and they gained a chance to achieve an influential role due to their active involvement in the process.

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