"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." George Bernard Shaw

October 27, 2010

LESS THAN A WIN-WIN IN AKKUYU

2010

Turkey’s foreign affair officials certainly have an agenda of short and long term plans. For now the foremost countries to be in concern and correlation are most probably United States, Iraq and Israel. Then comes European Union countries and Iran but certainly Russia is not among those first five. However, things may change in the future when the Russia-owned nuclear reactor in Turkey becomes real.

It was published in the Turkish Official Journal on 6th of October 2010 that Turkish and Russian officials sealed the deal for a nuclear reactor to be constructed in Akkuyu/Turkey by a joint stock of Russian companies that are to be agreed on in the near future. It is known that nuclear energy comes with its advantages and disadvantages but the details of the agreement bring more things to be concerned about.

According to the agreement, the Russian corporation is going to finish building the reactor and start the commercial activities in 10 years. What is catchy here is that Russians will hold all the rights and commercial shares of the reactor as long as it stands. It is reported that Russians are planning to sell the 49% of the shares to anyone interested but not one bit more. Also Turkey committed itself to purchase some large part of the electricity made by the Russian reactor for 15 years. According to the Union of Turkish Electrical Engineers, the construction of the reactor will not cost as cheap as it is predicted. Besides it will be more expensive to purchase electricity in a package for 15 years alongside its possible dependency effect.

Obviously nuclear power comes with a need of technical know-how and Turkey doesn’t have that. This inability would cost one way or another and Turkish officials chose a way in which Russia will play a major part. Although possessing a nuclear reactor is a nearly “must” for the regional power candidates in Middle East, it may be less than a win-win situation for Turkey. Before the commercial-related articles and their numerical details in the agreement, one can think the possibility of Turkey’s increasing dependency on Russia which also provides most of the natural gas need of Turkey. It is quite satirical when one can see that nuclear power is a way for its owners to be less dependent on other energy providers.

It is interesting that Russia also have plans to build a nuclear reactor in Venezuela which seems very similar to the Turkish plan. This may bring us to the point that Russians may not be planning only commercial activity with the nuclear know-how they own. When we think of the geopolitical standings of Turkey and Venezuela, it would be naïve to see the ongoing process only in commercial framework. As a result, it can be concluded that it may be prestigious and intimidating for Turkey in the future to have a nuclear reactor in their own land for the existing regional power conflict and but it is a more “win” in the Russian side if that is a win-win situation.

October 21, 2010

ACTING ACCORDINGLY AND THROUGH IMPROVISATION

2010

In the spring of 2010, Ibrahim Tatlises, a famous Turkish singer and showman, signed an agreement of a construction project in Erbil, Iraq. Tatlises will be investing in this project with a share of 50% and 70.000 houses will be built at the end of it. Tatlises is not only a singer in his hometown but also a businessman with his investments in sectors like food, clothing and broadcasting. But that’s not the case. The case is not the investment of a Turkish singer in Iraq. This micro example is only a shiny part of the increasing Turkish investment in Iraq and mostly in Kurdish Regional Government in Northern Iraq.

According to the regional administration in Northern Iraq, 730 out of 1,217 foreign companies in Iraq (mostly in Arbil, Sulaymaniyah and Duhok) are Turkish investments. A large portion of these companies are from construction and trade sectors which briefly signals the needs of the post-war Iraqi society. Also the trade numbers show the importance of Turkish goods in the region. There is a 6 billion dollars of trade between two countries and 5,2 billion of it is Turkey’s exports which are generally textile and ready-wear goods.

It is obvious that both these countries make profits from this cooperation. Turkey is now the most important importer for Iraq with a rate of 25% and this cooperation helps Turkey to continue its ongoing positive domestic economic atmosphere. On the other hand, Iraq severely needs huge and various investments due to its devastated post-war conditions and Turkey is one of the biggest contributors. Moreover, this transaction also helps Iraq build a more stable state. Turkey has a policy of “zero problem with neighbors” and Turkish state officials are very keen to give hand to Iraqi people for a stable, reliable and peaceful environment in their South Eastern region. But the most crucial point here is that Turkey is becoming a prominent actor in the Middle East region as a result of this cooperation.

According to the theories, after the withdrawal of US troops through the end of the 2011 there will be a power gap in Iraq. Shias, Sunnis and Kurds are the most influential groups in the country. After the withdrawal, Shias might be looking for support from Iran and Sunnis from the Arab world. It seems that Turkey is the most suitable candidate for the “brother” role for Kurds and the ongoing economic cooperation is also a way for building an increasing level of understanding for further cooperation between these two neighbors. Turkish state officials shows their good intentions by opening up new consulships in Iraq and this means another step for the development of good relations between the two sides.

The Turkish Businessman’s Association (TBA) seems to be sharing and maintaining this ambition. In April 2010, the members of the association met with Mesud Barzani, the president of the Kurdish Regional Government. After the meeting, Umit Boyner, president of TBA, pointed out the importance of the relationship between the two countries: “Legal and political environment along with the investment conditions of the region are noteworthy for us. The integrity of this country is precious to Turkey." It seems that all the actors in the stage are performing their actings according to the script and good news is that they also know how to improvise. Even a Turkish singer knows where to invest and this means more than it seems for the future actings in the region.
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