"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." George Bernard Shaw

October 27, 2010

LESS THAN A WIN-WIN IN AKKUYU

2010

Turkey’s foreign affair officials certainly have an agenda of short and long term plans. For now the foremost countries to be in concern and correlation are most probably United States, Iraq and Israel. Then comes European Union countries and Iran but certainly Russia is not among those first five. However, things may change in the future when the Russia-owned nuclear reactor in Turkey becomes real.

It was published in the Turkish Official Journal on 6th of October 2010 that Turkish and Russian officials sealed the deal for a nuclear reactor to be constructed in Akkuyu/Turkey by a joint stock of Russian companies that are to be agreed on in the near future. It is known that nuclear energy comes with its advantages and disadvantages but the details of the agreement bring more things to be concerned about.

According to the agreement, the Russian corporation is going to finish building the reactor and start the commercial activities in 10 years. What is catchy here is that Russians will hold all the rights and commercial shares of the reactor as long as it stands. It is reported that Russians are planning to sell the 49% of the shares to anyone interested but not one bit more. Also Turkey committed itself to purchase some large part of the electricity made by the Russian reactor for 15 years. According to the Union of Turkish Electrical Engineers, the construction of the reactor will not cost as cheap as it is predicted. Besides it will be more expensive to purchase electricity in a package for 15 years alongside its possible dependency effect.

Obviously nuclear power comes with a need of technical know-how and Turkey doesn’t have that. This inability would cost one way or another and Turkish officials chose a way in which Russia will play a major part. Although possessing a nuclear reactor is a nearly “must” for the regional power candidates in Middle East, it may be less than a win-win situation for Turkey. Before the commercial-related articles and their numerical details in the agreement, one can think the possibility of Turkey’s increasing dependency on Russia which also provides most of the natural gas need of Turkey. It is quite satirical when one can see that nuclear power is a way for its owners to be less dependent on other energy providers.

It is interesting that Russia also have plans to build a nuclear reactor in Venezuela which seems very similar to the Turkish plan. This may bring us to the point that Russians may not be planning only commercial activity with the nuclear know-how they own. When we think of the geopolitical standings of Turkey and Venezuela, it would be naïve to see the ongoing process only in commercial framework. As a result, it can be concluded that it may be prestigious and intimidating for Turkey in the future to have a nuclear reactor in their own land for the existing regional power conflict and but it is a more “win” in the Russian side if that is a win-win situation.

2 comments:

Ziya Cemre Kutluay said...

Could you detail why operating a nuclear reactor is a "must" for regional power?

batu said...

First of all, I should underline, this notion comes from a neo-realistic perspective.

The nuclear power is one of the elements of today's (in fact, since the beginning of the cold war) world to become a serious power. But, never to forget, it does not mean that nuclear power is the main thing to become a world or regional power. It is just one of the elements.

The discussions and all the buzz that had been on the table when Iran was working on her nuclear reactor, remember that.

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